A trade market for B.J. Ryan

In a recent article, Jays general manager J.P, Ricciardi maintained that “I don’t see us trading (closer) B.J. (Ryan),”adding that “He’s good at what he does, and it’s tough to fill that spot.”  J.P. is correct on the second point, Ryan is good at what he does. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Ryan saved 32 games last season, and despite being shaky on a few occassions, finished the year with an ERA of 2.95, a WHIP of 1.28, and picked up 58 strikeouts in 58 innings of work.  Riccardi is also correct on the third point, the closer’s spot is a tough one to fill.  As a result, the Jays should look to trade Ryan.  Let me explain further.

The Jays depth at the reliever position allows them to trade their closer more easily than would be the case with most teams.  Despite injuries to both Jeremy Accardo and Casey Janssen, the Jays had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year.  With Accardo and Janssen expected to be ready by spring, an already good bullpen from last year becomes even better and more crowded, necessitating at least one roster move, and likely more.  While Janssen is expected to compete for a role in the starting rotation, the bullpen will feature set-up man Scott Downs, Accardo, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson, Brandon League, Jason Frasor, Shaun Camp, Brian Wolfe and Ryan.  Even without Ryan, the Jays would feature one of MLB’s best bullpens.  Accardo could close (and did during Ryan’s injury in 2007), League has ‘closer’s stuff’, and Downs- arguably the best set-up man in baseball- could close if necessary.

Since Ryan is good at what he does and since the closer’s spot is hard to fill, Riccardi may be correct on his first point, that he doesn’t plan on trading Ryan, but failing to do this is making a mistake.  In fact, trading Ryan should be high on Ricciardi’s priority list.  There are more reasons to trade Ryan than the fact that the Jays have a talented and over-crowded bullpen.  The Jays are also in a cost cutting mode, and dumping Ryan’s remaining salary ($10 million in each of 2009 and 2010), would be a smart move.  This would allow the Jays to pocket the savings, or would provide them additional money to target free agents (such as a quality number two starter of a designate hitter).  A trade would also bring in prospects to help fill an average-at-best farm system.

The last reason to trade Ryan is that there is a market for a quality closer: there are few options left on the free agent market and many teams still in need of a closer.  Top closers Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, and Kerry Wood have all signed, leaving only the 41 year old Trevor Hoffman (554 career saves) and Juan Cruz, “This year’s version of gonna-try-to-make-him-a-closer” according to Jeff Passan.  In short, the pickings are slim.

And who’s in the market for a closer?  A number of teams could use a boost at the back-end of their bullpen.  The following list includes the teams- including a number of playoff contenders- who could use a closer.  The career saves of their current closer are in brackets.

Detriot: The Tigers currently have Joel Zumaya (3) and Francisco Rodney (33) at the back of their pen.  Both have talent, but Zumaya is coming off a shoulder injury and Rodney is coming of an 0-6 season in which he experienced major control problems and an ERA of 4.91.  Raw talent?  Yes.  Should Tigers fans be confident in these two?  No.

Texas: Frank Francisco (5) won the closer’s role last year over Joaquin Benoit (8) and C.J. Wilson (38).  Wilson’s 6.02 ERA is just scary, and while Francisco is the best of the bunch, there are still question marks around him.

Seattle: The Mariners traded J.J. Putz to the Mets, leaving them with the once promising Aaron Heilman (8) as the closer.  Coming off a season in which his ERA was 5.21 and his WHIP was 1.59, the Mariners would be wise to have a plan B, and ideally, a new closer.

Atlanta: The Braves have handed the reins over to Mike Gonlazez (44).  He was good in 2006 (24 SV, 2.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), but last year (14 SV, 4.28 ERA), not so much.  Rafael Soriano (16) could step in if required.

Milwaukee: Will Dave Riske (22) do the job?  He’s probably better suited as a middle innings guy, and his 5.31 ERA from last year doesn’t bode well.  This team is a legitmate playoff contender, and could use a solid closer.

St. Louis: After a disaster of a season in the closer’s spot last year, the Cardinals could use some stability in the bullpen.  Starter turned closer Ryan Franklin (18) will start the season as the closer, but there aren’t any guarantees he ends the season as closer.  Franklin went 17 for 25 in save opportunities last season, slightly better than Jason Isringhausen’s 12 for 19, Kyle McLellan’s 1 for 6, and Chris Perez’s 7 for 11.  Yikes!

In short, there are plenty of potential destinations for Ryan.  It would be wise for J.P. to agressively dangle Ryan and see if there are any takers.  Without Ryan, the Jays will have more money, more prospects and still have a terrific bullpen.

 

2 comments

  1. welikeroywelikeroy

    The biggest reason why I think B.J. is tradable is Brandon League. He did very well at the end of last season. Cito had confidence in him (something that Gibbons should have had) and did some great things in later half of the season. I think he would be ready to step into the closer role right now. I’m also of the school that favors a hard throwing intimidator like League as your closer – not that B.J. wasn’t that – he is just paid too much. Most importantly, with League ready, I see B.J. as expendable especially since the Jays scrapping the bottom of the barrell for money right now.

    Good stuff. Sometimes I wish bloggers like me, you and the others you listed in your previous list/post could General Manage the team, especially with a GM listed as one of the worst in baseball. What I do like, is that J.P. has had some highly rated drafts the last two-three years. He did give Halladay a great extension. Another extension would be awesome, but your right, it would all depend on what he wants. The guy has done everything for the team. I’m glad he likes his situation in Toronto, we know he doesn’t like losing, but so didn’t Tony Gwynn, Robin Yount etc… He might just that much of a class act to stay. I definately agree with the idea of being proactive on an extension in the next two years.

    If J.P. doesn’t want to do, I’ll do it, he can play for my Men’s Slo-Pitch team. I’m just kidding. Sorry I’m all over the place. Thanks for the comments and cheers. Gotta go watch the Juniors.
    http://homerfoodandhistory.mlblogs.com/

  2. The Iceman

    I would love to see them trade Ryan for a couple of prospects. I’m afraid though that while we would be saving money by trading him, that money would not be used to sign any other key free agent. After Burnett left, I was hoping to spend a chunk of his money on a DH, but it looks like they are just going to keep cutting for this season and hope for the best. Thanks for the link, and I’ll be sure to return the favour.
    http://icemansports.mlblogs.com

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